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0510-83078936
0510-83078936
這幾波錐形鋼管漲價與需求無關(guān)，核心仍是補庫存
目前時點仍處淡季，終端需求尚未啟動，需求顯然不是錐形鋼管漲價原因，只可能是中間需求(貿(mào)易商補庫存)或供給。補庫存根本取決于預(yù)期(預(yù)期漲幅——資金成本)，因此，一是市場看漲情緒，二是資金充裕(流動性)，而低庫存則放大了彈性。因此，期貨帶動鋼坯進而帶動現(xiàn)貨。終端需求是后面兩周要重點關(guān)注的。
理解低庫存及長時間減產(chǎn)的后果
當(dāng)前庫存嚴(yán)重低位：錐形鋼管市場社會庫存同比下降20%、唐山鋼坯庫存同比下降51.5%、鋼廠庫存也低。行業(yè)自2015年下半年起連續(xù)9個月維持低于77%的開工率(對應(yīng)產(chǎn)能利用率預(yù)計不到70%)，必然導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈深度去庫存，貿(mào)易商補庫存則放大了該缺口。
開工率PK旺季需求
旺季錐形鋼管需求強度歷史上高出全年至少5-10個百分點，開工率若始終維持77%以下低位，全年需求同比變化不大假設(shè)下，旺季大概率供小于求，支持錐形鋼管漲價。
聯(lián)系人：郝經(jīng)理13338743195 電 話：0510-83078936 傳 真：0510-84601237 Q Q：1363219626
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